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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
6 – 0
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
10/16/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva53%
×Draw24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.75
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.06

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 65% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 44 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
77%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
76%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
47%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
83%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
52%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
25%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
53%
level
24%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
23%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundación Lara Deportiva 6–0 Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Deportivo JBL del Zulia 6-0 in Segunda División on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.