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Deportivo JBL del Zulia vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
FT
0 – 1
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
8/27/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia38%
×Draw26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.36
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.42
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.60
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw
64%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia or Fundación Lara Deportiva
74%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
62%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
18%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
39%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
16%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
73%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
37%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
52%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
38%
level
26%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
36%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo JBL del Zulia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 0 – 1 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1-0 in Segunda División on August 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Guillermo Soto Rosa in Mérida.