Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–0 Aragua FC

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aragua FC

3/31/2024

Segunda División · Apertura - 3Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva45%

×Draw28%

Aragua FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchAragua FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.99

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.34

Aragua FC

0.99

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 35% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 37 away

1.45

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.45

Aragua FC

0.86

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.11

Aragua FC

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Aragua FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Aragua FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

72%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or Aragua FC

72%

Draw or Aragua FC

55%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

21%

Aragua FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

74%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

39%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

15%

Aragua FC 1+ goals

63%

Aragua FC 2+ goals

26%

Aragua FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

62%

Aragua FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Aragua FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Aragua FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aragua FC attack 0.86 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

45%

level

28%

Aragua FC scores more

28%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff