Aragua FC 1–2 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Aragua FC

FT

1 – 2

Fundación Lara Deportiva

9/30/2024

Segunda División · Clausura - 10Estadio Olímpico Hermanos Ghersi Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aragua FC46%

×Draw29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aragua FCExpected goals in this matchFundación Lara Deportiva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.84

Aragua FC

1.25

Fundación Lara Deportiva

0.84

Aragua FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

0.68

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Aragua FC

1.19

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.00

allows per match

Aragua FC

0.68

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aragua FC+0.00on par

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aragua FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Aragua FC or draw

75%

Aragua FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva

71%

Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva

54%

Winning margin

Aragua FC wins by 2+

21%

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aragua FC 1+ goals

71%

Aragua FC 2+ goals

36%

Aragua FC 3+ goals

13%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

57%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

21%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aragua FC (draw refunded)

65%

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aragua FC at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.68 · 37 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aragua FC attack 1.19 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Aragua FC defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aragua FC scores more

46%

level

29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

25%

Aragua FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aragua FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff