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Fundacion AIFI vs Ciudad Vinotinto — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
1 – 0
Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
3/20/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 5CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fundacion AIFI48%
×Draw30%
Ciudad Vinotinto23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.24
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.76

Fundacion AIFI creates 63% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Ciudad Vinotinto
0.50

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Ciudad Vinotinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
77%
Fundacion AIFI or Ciudad Vinotinto
70%
Draw or Ciudad Vinotinto
52%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
22%
Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
71%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
35%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
13%
Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
53%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
18%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
68%
Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Ciudad Vinotinto away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.50 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
48%
level
30%
Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
23%

Fundacion AIFI at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundacion AIFI 1–0 Ciudad Vinotinto

Fundacion AIFI beat Ciudad Vinotinto 1-0 in Segunda División on March 20, 2019.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).