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Ciudad Vinotinto vs Fundacion AIFI — Segunda División 2018

Ciudad Vinotinto
Ciudad Vinotinto
FT
0 – 0
Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
5/1/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ciudad Vinotinto38%
×Draw28%
Fundacion AIFI34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.21
Fundacion AIFI
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
0.83
Fundacion AIFI
0.85

allows per match

Ciudad Vinotinto
1.42
Fundacion AIFI
1.59

finishing

Ciudad Vinotinto+0.00on par
Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Vinotinto ↓

Fundacion AIFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ciudad Vinotinto or draw
66%
Ciudad Vinotinto or Fundacion AIFI
72%
Draw or Fundacion AIFI
62%

Winning margin

Ciudad Vinotinto wins by 2+
16%
Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ciudad Vinotinto 1+ goals
70%
Ciudad Vinotinto 2+ goals
34%
Ciudad Vinotinto 3+ goals
12%
Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
68%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
32%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Vinotinto (draw refunded)
52%
Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Vinotinto at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Fundacion AIFI away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Vinotinto attack 0.83 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fundacion AIFI attack 0.85 + Ciudad Vinotinto defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ciudad Vinotinto scores more
38%
level
28%
Fundacion AIFI scores more
34%

Ciudad Vinotinto at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ciudad Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad Vinotinto 0 – 0 Fundacion AIFI

Ciudad Vinotinto and Fundacion AIFI drew 0-0 in Segunda División on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico General José Antonio Anzoátegui (Puerto la Cruz).