Fulham 1–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats | Championship

Fulham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

A. Mitrović 6'

J. Bowler 57'

1/29/2022

Championship · Round 29Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham55%

×Draw23%

Blackpool22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.02

Fulham

1.77

Blackpool

1.02

Fulham creates 74% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 52 away

2.02

creates per match

0.92

1.13

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Fulham

2.02

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Fulham

1.13

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

78%

Fulham or Blackpool

77%

Draw or Blackpool

45%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

31%

Blackpool wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

83%

Fulham 2+ goals

53%

Fulham 3+ goals

26%

Blackpool 1+ goals

64%

Blackpool 2+ goals

27%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

72%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.77

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fulham scores more

55%

level

23%

Blackpool scores more

22%

Fulham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

F. Carvalho

Fulham · M

7.5

Match Events

6'

A. Mitrović↳ F. Carvalho

26'

Denis Odoi

39'

Kenneth Dougall

45+1'

Aleksandar Mitrović

57'

J. Bowler↳ C. Hamilton

68'

Fabio Carvalho

72'

Rodrigo Muniz← N. Kebano

72'

N. Chalobah← H. Reed

75'

Harry Wilson

79'

J. Yates← S. Lavery

83'

A. Knockaert← D. Odoi

90+1'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamBlackpool

Overview

74%Possession26%

19Total Shots10

9Corners3

13Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots10

6On Target4

10Off Target4

3Blocked2

14Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

527Total Passes177

451Accurate Passes96

86%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1