Blackpool 1–0 Fulham: Result & Stats | Championship

Blackpool

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fulham

J. Bowler 49'

9/11/2021

Championship · Round 6Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Blackpool29%

×Draw27%

Fulham44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.41

Blackpool

1.09

Fulham

1.41

Fulham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

1.23

creates per match

1.54

1.27

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Blackpool

1.23

Fulham

1.54

allows per match

Blackpool

1.27

Fulham

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

56%

Blackpool or Fulham

73%

Draw or Fulham

71%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

11%

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

66%

Blackpool 2+ goals

30%

Blackpool 3+ goals

10%

Fulham 1+ goals

76%

Fulham 2+ goals

41%

Fulham 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

40%

Fulham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.23 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Fulham attack 1.54 + Blackpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackpool scores more

29%

level

27%

Fulham scores more

44%

Fulham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Maxwell

Blackpool · G

7.9

Match Events

49'

J. Bowler↳ K. Stewart

53'

Kevin Stewart

59'

Domingos Quina

67'

N. Kebano← Domingos Quina

67'

72'

73'

79'

79'

K. Dougall← R. Wintle

79'

Rodrigo Muniz← D. Odoi

86'

Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel

86'

J. Husband← T. John-Jules

90+2'

Luke Garbutt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolFulham

Overview

30%Possession70%

8Total Shots17

4Corners4

12Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots17

1On Target4

6Off Target7

1Blocked6

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box8

Passing

30%Possession70%

273Total Passes629

193Accurate Passes553

71%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1