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Fulgencio Yegros vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
FT
0 – 2
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
7/1/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Colegialito (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros32%
×Draw28%
Fernando De La Mora39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.06
Fernando De La Mora
1.21

Fernando De La Mora creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 113 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
61%
Fulgencio Yegros or Fernando De La Mora
72%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
68%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
12%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
65%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
29%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
9%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
70%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
34%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
45%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.06

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
32%
level
28%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
39%

Fernando De La Mora at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Fulgencio Yegros 0–2 Fernando De La Mora

Fernando De La Mora beat Fulgencio Yegros 2-0 in Division Intermedia on July 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Colegialito (Asunción).