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Fernando De La Mora vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
FT
3 – 0
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
4/28/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi (Fernando de la Mora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fernando De La Mora50%
×Draw26%
Fulgencio Yegros24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernando De La Mora
1.48
Fulgencio Yegros
0.93

Fernando De La Mora creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 47 away

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.31
Fulgencio Yegros
0.87

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora
0.99
Fulgencio Yegros
1.64

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw
76%
Fernando De La Mora or Fulgencio Yegros
74%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
50%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
25%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
77%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
43%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
19%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
61%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
24%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
68%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.87 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more
50%
level
26%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
24%

Fernando De La Mora at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fernando De La Mora vs Fulgencio Yegros

Fernando De La Mora beat Fulgencio Yegros 3-0 in Division Intermedia on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi (Fernando de la Mora).