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Fulgencio Yegros vs Deportivo Liberacion — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
FT
1 – 0
Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
4/21/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 6Estadio Colegialito (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros39%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Liberacion32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.19
Deportivo Liberacion
1.06

Fulgencio Yegros creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Deportivo Liberacion
0.87

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
Deportivo Liberacion
1.53

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Deportivo Liberacion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
68%
Fulgencio Yegros or Deportivo Liberacion
71%
Draw or Deportivo Liberacion
61%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
70%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
33%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
55%
Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Deportivo Liberacion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo Liberacion attack 0.87 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
39%
level
29%
Deportivo Liberacion scores more
32%

Fulgencio Yegros at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fulgencio Yegros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fulgencio Yegros vs Deportivo Liberacion

Fulgencio Yegros beat Deportivo Liberacion 1-0 in Division Intermedia on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Colegialito (Asunción).