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Deportivo Liberacion vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

Deportivo Liberacion
Deportivo Liberacion
FT
4 – 1
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
7/28/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 21Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion47%
×Draw25%
Fulgencio Yegros28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Liberacion
1.56
Fulgencio Yegros
1.15

Deportivo Liberacion creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 48 away

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.53
Fulgencio Yegros
0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion
1.40
Fulgencio Yegros
1.60

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw
72%
Deportivo Liberacion or Fulgencio Yegros
75%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+
24%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals
21%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
68%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
32%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)
62%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more
47%
level
25%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
28%

Deportivo Liberacion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Deportivo Liberacion 4–1 Fulgencio Yegros

Deportivo Liberacion beat Fulgencio Yegros 4-1 in Division Intermedia on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación).