Fulgencio Yegros 2–0 Deportivo Caaguazu

Fulgencio Yegros

FT

2 – 0

Deportivo Caaguazu

7/7/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Ypané (Ypané)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros46%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Caaguazu27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulgencio YegrosExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Caaguazu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Fulgencio Yegros

1.39

Deportivo Caaguazu

0.99

Fulgencio Yegros creates 40% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

0.85

creates per match

0.73

1.25

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros

0.85

Deportivo Caaguazu

0.73

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros

1.25

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw

73%

Fulgencio Yegros or Deportivo Caaguazu

73%

Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu

54%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

22%

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

75%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

40%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

16%

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

63%

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.39

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

46%

level

27%

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more

27%

Fulgencio Yegros at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fulgencio Yegros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff