Deportivo Caaguazu 1–1 Fulgencio Yegros

Deportivo Caaguazu

FT

1 – 1

Fulgencio Yegros

10/20/2019

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Municipal Federico Llamosas (Caaguazú)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportivo Caaguazu46%

×Draw27%

Fulgencio Yegros27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaaguazuExpected goals in this matchFulgencio Yegros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.39

Fulgencio Yegros

0.99

Deportivo Caaguazu creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 48 away

1.17

creates per match

0.90

1.07

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.17

Fulgencio Yegros

0.90

allows per match

Deportivo Caaguazu

1.07

Fulgencio Yegros

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Caaguazu ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Caaguazu or draw

73%

Deportivo Caaguazu or Fulgencio Yegros

73%

Draw or Fulgencio Yegros

54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+

22%

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals

75%

Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals

40%

Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals

16%

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

63%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

26%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)

63%

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Caaguazu at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 1.17 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Caaguazu scores more

46%

level

27%

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

27%

Deportivo Caaguazu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Caaguazu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff