Fulgencio Yegros 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Fulgencio Yegros

FT

1 – 0

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

7/15/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Colegialito (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros28%

×Draw29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulgencio YegrosExpected goals in this matchClub Sp. San Lorenzo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.23

Fulgencio Yegros

0.95

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.23

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 92 away

0.85

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros

0.85

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.20

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros

1.25

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Club Sp. San Lorenzo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw

57%

Fulgencio Yegros or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

71%

Draw or Club Sp. San Lorenzo

72%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

10%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

61%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

25%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

7%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

71%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

35%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

40%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.20 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

28%

level

29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

43%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff