Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–0 Fulgencio Yegros

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

FT

2 – 0

Fulgencio Yegros

6/4/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Gunther Vogel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Club Sp. San Lorenzo54%

×Draw25%

Fulgencio Yegros21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Sp. San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchFulgencio Yegros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.91

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.62

Fulgencio Yegros

0.91

Club Sp. San Lorenzo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 48 away

1.64

creates per match

0.90

0.91

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

1.64

Fulgencio Yegros

0.90

allows per match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

0.91

Fulgencio Yegros

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Sp. San Lorenzo+0.00on par

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Sp. San Lorenzo ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw

79%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo or Fulgencio Yegros

75%

Draw or Fulgencio Yegros

46%

Winning margin

Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins by 2+

29%

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1+ goals

80%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2+ goals

48%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 3+ goals

22%

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

60%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

23%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Club Sp. San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

72%

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.91 · 92 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Sp. San Lorenzo attack 1.64 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.62

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Club Sp. San Lorenzo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scores more

54%

level

25%

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

21%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Club Sp. San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff