Fulgencio Yegros 0–1 Club River Plate

Fulgencio Yegros

FT

0 – 1

Club River Plate

4/1/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 3Estadio Colegialito (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros33%

×Draw29%

Club River Plate38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulgencio YegrosExpected goals in this matchClub River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.14

Fulgencio Yegros

1.04

Club River Plate

1.14

Club River Plate creates 10% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

0.85

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros

0.85

Club River Plate

1.02

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros

1.25

Club River Plate

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Club River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw

62%

Fulgencio Yegros or Club River Plate

71%

Draw or Club River Plate

67%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

13%

Club River Plate wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

65%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

28%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

9%

Club River Plate 1+ goals

68%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

32%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

46%

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Club River Plate defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Club River Plate attack 1.02 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

33%

level

29%

Club River Plate scores more

38%

Club River Plate at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff