Club River Plate 1–1 Fulgencio Yegros

Club River Plate

FT

1 – 1

Fulgencio Yegros

7/8/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 18Estadio River Plate (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Club River Plate46%

×Draw27%

Fulgencio Yegros27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club River PlateExpected goals in this matchFulgencio Yegros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.01

Club River Plate

1.42

Fulgencio Yegros

1.01

Club River Plate creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

1.24

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Club River Plate

1.24

Fulgencio Yegros

0.90

allows per match

Club River Plate

1.11

Fulgencio Yegros

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club River Plate+0.00on par

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club River Plate ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Club River Plate or draw

73%

Club River Plate or Fulgencio Yegros

73%

Draw or Fulgencio Yegros

54%

Winning margin

Club River Plate wins by 2+

23%

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Club River Plate 1+ goals

76%

Club River Plate 2+ goals

41%

Club River Plate 3+ goals

17%

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals

64%

Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals

27%

Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Club River Plate (draw refunded)

63%

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club River Plate at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 46 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club River Plate attack 1.24 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + Club River Plate defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club River Plate scores more

46%

level

27%

Fulgencio Yegros scores more

27%

Club River Plate at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Club River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff