Fuerza Amarilla 0–2 Duros del Balon: Result & Stats

Fuerza Amarilla

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Duros del Balon

9/4/2020

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 5Estadio 9 de Mayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla46%

×Draw28%

Duros del Balon26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerza AmarillaExpected goals in this matchDuros del Balon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.95

Fuerza Amarilla

1.36

Duros del Balon

0.95

Fuerza Amarilla creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

1.19

creates per match

0.96

0.94

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla

1.19

Duros del Balon

0.96

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla

0.94

Duros del Balon

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Duros del Balon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Duros del Balon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw

74%

Fuerza Amarilla or Duros del Balon

72%

Draw or Duros del Balon

54%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

22%

Duros del Balon wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

74%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

39%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

16%

Duros del Balon 1+ goals

61%

Duros del Balon 2+ goals

25%

Duros del Balon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

64%

Duros del Balon (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Duros del Balon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + Duros del Balon defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Duros del Balon attack 0.96 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

46%

level

28%

Duros del Balon scores more

26%

Fuerza Amarilla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff