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Duros del Balon vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Duros del Balon
Duros del Balon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
10/22/2020Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 13Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Duros del Balon39%
×Draw30%
Fuerza Amarilla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duros del Balon
1.10
Fuerza Amarilla
0.95

Duros del Balon creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Duros del Balon
1.18
Fuerza Amarilla
0.87

allows per match

Duros del Balon
1.02
Fuerza Amarilla
1.03

finishing

Duros del Balon+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duros del Balon ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Duros del Balon or draw
69%
Duros del Balon or Fuerza Amarilla
70%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
61%

Winning margin

Duros del Balon wins by 2+
16%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Duros del Balon 1+ goals
67%
Duros del Balon 2+ goals
30%
Duros del Balon 3+ goals
10%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
61%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
25%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Duros del Balon (draw refunded)
56%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duros del Balon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duros del Balon attack 1.18 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.87 + Duros del Balon defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Duros del Balon scores more
39%
level
30%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
31%

Duros del Balon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Duros del Balon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Duros del Balon 0–0 Fuerza Amarilla

Duros del Balon and Fuerza Amarilla drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.