Fuerza Amarilla 0–2 Barcelona SC: Result & Stats

Fuerza Amarilla

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona SC

W. Vera 52'

E. Esterilla 43'

7/10/2016

Liga Pro · Round 19Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla25%

×Draw25%

Barcelona SC51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerza AmarillaExpected goals in this matchBarcelona SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.61

Fuerza Amarilla

1.04

Barcelona SC

1.61

Barcelona SC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 136 away

0.92

creates per match

1.35

1.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla

0.92

Barcelona SC

1.35

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla

1.88

Barcelona SC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Barcelona SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw

49%

Fuerza Amarilla or Barcelona SC

75%

Draw or Barcelona SC

75%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

9%

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

65%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

28%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

9%

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

80%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

48%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

33%

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.92 + Barcelona SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Barcelona SC attack 1.35 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

25%

level

25%

Barcelona SC scores more

51%

Barcelona SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

E. Esterilla

52'

W. Vera

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff