Barcelona SC 2–1 Fuerza Amarilla: Result & Stats

Barcelona SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fuerza Amarilla

8/13/2019

Liga Pro · Round 21Estadio Monumental Isidro Romero Carbo (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Barcelona SC72%

×Draw17%

Fuerza Amarilla10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona SCExpected goals in this matchFuerza Amarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.72

Barcelona SC

2.27

Fuerza Amarilla

0.72

Barcelona SC creates 215% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 15 away

1.87

creates per match

0.60

0.85

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Barcelona SC

1.87

Fuerza Amarilla

0.60

allows per match

Barcelona SC

0.85

Fuerza Amarilla

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw

90%

Barcelona SC or Fuerza Amarilla

83%

Draw or Fuerza Amarilla

28%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+

48%

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals

90%

Barcelona SC 2+ goals

66%

Barcelona SC 3+ goals

39%

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

51%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

16%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)

87%

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Barcelona SC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Barcelona SC scores more

72%

level

17%

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

10%

Barcelona SC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff