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Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza — Primera Division 2019

Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Alianza
Alianza
11/16/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 22Estadio Correcaminos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fuerte San Francisco23%
×Draw27%
Alianza50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerte San Francisco
0.87
Alianza
1.43

Alianza creates 64% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 154 away

creates per match

Fuerte San Francisco
0.79
Alianza
1.53

allows per match

Fuerte San Francisco
1.33
Alianza
0.95

finishing

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par
Alianza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerte San Francisco ↓

Alianza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuerte San Francisco or draw
50%
Fuerte San Francisco or Alianza
73%
Draw or Alianza
77%

Winning margin

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
7%
Alianza wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
58%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
22%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
6%
Alianza 1+ goals
76%
Alianza 2+ goals
42%
Alianza 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
31%
Alianza (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerte San Francisco at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Alianza away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.79 + Alianza defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.87

Alianza attack 1.53 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fuerte San Francisco scores more
23%
level
27%
Alianza scores more
50%

Alianza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuerte San Francisco vs Alianza

Alianza beat Fuerte San Francisco 3-1 in Primera Division on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Correcaminos.