Alianza 1–0 Fuerte San Francisco: Result & Stats

Alianza

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fuerte San Francisco

9/14/2025

Primera Division · Apertura - 11Estadio Cuscatlán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Alianza56%

×Draw24%

Fuerte San Francisco19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlianzaExpected goals in this matchFuerte San Francisco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.87

Alianza

1.67

Fuerte San Francisco

0.87

Alianza creates 92% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 67 away

1.83

creates per match

0.94

0.80

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Alianza

1.83

Fuerte San Francisco

0.94

allows per match

Alianza

0.80

Fuerte San Francisco

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza+0.00on par

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza or draw

81%

Alianza or Fuerte San Francisco

76%

Draw or Fuerte San Francisco

44%

Winning margin

Alianza wins by 2+

31%

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Alianza 1+ goals

81%

Alianza 2+ goals

50%

Alianza 3+ goals

23%

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals

58%

Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals

22%

Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza (draw refunded)

74%

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.80 · 161 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza attack 1.83 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Alianza defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza scores more

56%

level

24%

Fuerte San Francisco scores more

19%

Alianza at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff