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Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila — Primera Division 2019

Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Águila
Águila
2/4/2026Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Clausura - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fuerte San Francisco26%
×Draw30%
Águila45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerte San Francisco
0.85
Águila
1.22

Águila creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 153 away

creates per match

Fuerte San Francisco
0.79
Águila
1.11

allows per match

Fuerte San Francisco
1.33
Águila
0.91

finishing

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par
Águila+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerte San Francisco ↓

Águila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fuerte San Francisco or draw
55%
Fuerte San Francisco or Águila
70%
Draw or Águila
74%

Winning margin

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
8%
Águila wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
57%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
21%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
5%
Águila 1+ goals
70%
Águila 2+ goals
34%
Águila 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
37%
Águila (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerte San Francisco at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Águila away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.79 + Águila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85

Águila attack 1.11 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fuerte San Francisco scores more
26%
level
30%
Águila scores more
45%

Águila at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila

Águila beat Fuerte San Francisco 3-2 in Primera Division on February 4, 2026.