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Águila vs Fuerte San Francisco — Primera Division 2019

Águila
Águila
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco
10/29/2025Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 16Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Águila53%
×Draw25%
Fuerte San Francisco22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águila
1.61
Fuerte San Francisco
0.94

Águila creates 71% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 67 away

creates per match

Águila
1.72
Fuerte San Francisco
0.94

allows per match

Águila
0.93
Fuerte San Francisco
1.51

finishing

Águila+0.00on par
Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águila ↓

Fuerte San Francisco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Águila or draw
78%
Águila or Fuerte San Francisco
75%
Draw or Fuerte San Francisco
47%

Winning margin

Águila wins by 2+
28%
Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Águila 1+ goals
80%
Águila 2+ goals
48%
Águila 3+ goals
22%
Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals
61%
Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals
24%
Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águila (draw refunded)
71%
Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águila at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.93 · 156 matches

Fuerte San Francisco away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águila attack 1.72 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.94 + Águila defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Águila scores more
53%
level
25%
Fuerte San Francisco scores more
22%

Águila at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Águila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Águila 3–3 Fuerte San Francisco

Águila and Fuerte San Francisco drew 3-3 in Primera Division on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Francisco Barraza in San Miguel.