Fuentes 0–1 Épila: Result & Stats

Fuentes

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Épila

4/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 30Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fuentes28%

×Draw29%

Épila43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuentesExpected goals in this matchÉpila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.23

Fuentes

0.94

Épila

1.23

Épila creates 31% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 99 away

0.82

creates per match

1.16

1.29

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Fuentes

0.82

Épila

1.16

allows per match

Fuentes

1.29

Épila

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuentes+0.00on par

Épila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuentes ↓

Épila →

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fuentes or draw

57%

Fuentes or Épila

71%

Draw or Épila

72%

Winning margin

Fuentes wins by 2+

10%

Épila wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fuentes 1+ goals

61%

Fuentes 2+ goals

24%

Fuentes 3+ goals

Épila 1+ goals

71%

Épila 2+ goals

35%

Épila 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fuentes (draw refunded)

40%

Épila (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fuentes at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Épila away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fuentes attack 0.82 + Épila defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Épila attack 1.16 + Fuentes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuentes scores more

28%

level

29%

Épila scores more

43%

Épila at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff