Épila 1–0 Fuentes: Result & Stats

Épila

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fuentes

12/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Épila53%

×Draw27%

Fuentes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÉpilaExpected goals in this matchFuentes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.76

Épila

1.44

Fuentes

0.76

Épila creates 89% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

1.20

creates per match

0.74

0.77

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Épila

1.20

Fuentes

0.74

allows per match

Épila

0.77

Fuentes

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Épila+0.00on par

Fuentes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Épila ↓

Fuentes →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Épila or draw

80%

Épila or Fuentes

73%

Draw or Fuentes

47%

Winning margin

Épila wins by 2+

27%

Fuentes wins by 2+

Team goals

Épila 1+ goals

76%

Épila 2+ goals

42%

Épila 3+ goals

18%

Fuentes 1+ goals

53%

Fuentes 2+ goals

18%

Fuentes 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Épila (draw refunded)

73%

Fuentes (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Épila at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.77 · 100 matches

Fuentes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Épila attack 1.20 + Fuentes defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fuentes attack 0.74 + Épila defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Épila scores more

53%

level

27%

Fuentes scores more

20%

Épila at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Épila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff