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Fuentes vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Fuentes
Fuentes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Binéfar
Binéfar
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 16Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fuentes29%
×Draw28%
Binéfar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuentes
1.01
Binéfar
1.28

Binéfar creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Fuentes
0.82
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Fuentes
1.29
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Fuentes+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuentes ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuentes or draw
57%
Fuentes or Binéfar
72%
Draw or Binéfar
71%

Winning margin

Fuentes wins by 2+
11%
Binéfar wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fuentes 1+ goals
64%
Fuentes 2+ goals
27%
Fuentes 3+ goals
8%
Binéfar 1+ goals
72%
Binéfar 2+ goals
37%
Binéfar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fuentes (draw refunded)
41%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuentes at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuentes attack 0.82 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.01

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Fuentes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuentes scores more
29%
level
28%
Binéfar scores more
43%

Binéfar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Fuentes 1–1 Binéfar

Fuentes and Binéfar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Miguel de Fuentes de Ebro in Fuentes de Ebro.