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Binéfar vs Fuentes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Binéfar
Binéfar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuentes
Fuentes
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 33Estadio de Los Olmos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Binéfar54%
×Draw25%
Fuentes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binéfar
1.58
Fuentes
0.86

Binéfar creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 34 away

creates per match

Binéfar
1.48
Fuentes
0.74

allows per match

Binéfar
0.98
Fuentes
1.68

finishing

Binéfar+0.00on par
Fuentes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binéfar ↓

Fuentes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Binéfar or draw
80%
Binéfar or Fuentes
75%
Draw or Fuentes
46%

Winning margin

Binéfar wins by 2+
29%
Fuentes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Binéfar 1+ goals
79%
Binéfar 2+ goals
47%
Binéfar 3+ goals
21%
Fuentes 1+ goals
58%
Fuentes 2+ goals
21%
Fuentes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Binéfar (draw refunded)
73%
Fuentes (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binéfar at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.98 · 110 matches

Fuentes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binéfar attack 1.48 + Fuentes defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fuentes attack 0.74 + Binéfar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Binéfar scores more
54%
level
25%
Fuentes scores more
20%

Binéfar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Binéfar 1–0 Fuentes

Binéfar beat Fuentes 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Los Olmos in Binéfar.