Fuente Cantos 0–1 Calamonte: Result & Stats

Fuente Cantos

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Calamonte

1/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 16Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fuente Cantos38%

×Draw28%

Calamonte34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuente CantosExpected goals in this matchCalamonte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.15

Fuente Cantos

1.24

Calamonte

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 111 away

0.90

creates per match

1.00

1.30

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Fuente Cantos

0.90

Calamonte

1.00

allows per match

Fuente Cantos

1.30

Calamonte

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Calamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Calamonte →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw

66%

Fuente Cantos or Calamonte

72%

Draw or Calamonte

62%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

17%

Calamonte wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

71%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

35%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

13%

Calamonte 1+ goals

68%

Calamonte 2+ goals

32%

Calamonte 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

53%

Calamonte (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Calamonte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Calamonte defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Calamonte attack 1.00 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more

38%

level

28%

Calamonte scores more

34%

Fuente Cantos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fuente Cantos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff