Calamonte 1–1 Fuente Cantos: Result & Stats

Calamonte

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fuente Cantos

9/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 1Municipal Calamonteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Calamonte47%

×Draw27%

Fuente Cantos26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalamonteExpected goals in this matchFuente Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Calamonte

1.44

Fuente Cantos

1.00

Calamonte creates 44% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 61 away

1.22

creates per match

0.89

1.10

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Calamonte

1.22

Fuente Cantos

0.89

allows per match

Calamonte

1.10

Fuente Cantos

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calamonte+0.00on par

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calamonte ↓

Fuente Cantos →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Calamonte or draw

74%

Calamonte or Fuente Cantos

73%

Draw or Fuente Cantos

53%

Winning margin

Calamonte wins by 2+

23%

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Calamonte 1+ goals

76%

Calamonte 2+ goals

42%

Calamonte 3+ goals

18%

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

63%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

26%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Calamonte (draw refunded)

64%

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Calamonte at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 109 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Calamonte attack 1.22 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Calamonte defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Calamonte scores more

47%

level

27%

Fuente Cantos scores more

26%

Calamonte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Calamonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff