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Fuente Cantos vs Azuaga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Fuente Cantos
Fuente Cantos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Azuaga
Azuaga
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 8Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Fuente Cantos29%
×Draw28%
Azuaga43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuente Cantos
1.04
Azuaga
1.32

Azuaga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 108 away

creates per match

Fuente Cantos
0.90
Azuaga
1.34

allows per match

Fuente Cantos
1.30
Azuaga
1.18

finishing

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par
Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuente Cantos ↓

Azuaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fuente Cantos or draw
57%
Fuente Cantos or Azuaga
72%
Draw or Azuaga
71%

Winning margin

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+
11%
Azuaga wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals
65%
Fuente Cantos 2+ goals
28%
Fuente Cantos 3+ goals
9%
Azuaga 1+ goals
73%
Azuaga 2+ goals
38%
Azuaga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)
41%
Azuaga (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuente Cantos at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuente Cantos attack 0.90 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.04

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuente Cantos scores more
29%
level
28%
Azuaga scores more
43%

Azuaga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Fuente Cantos 1–1 Azuaga

Fuente Cantos and Azuaga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Francisco De Zurbarán in Fuente de Cantos.