Azuaga 3–1 Fuente Cantos: Result & Stats

Azuaga

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fuente Cantos

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Estadio CD Azuaga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Azuaga56%

×Draw25%

Fuente Cantos20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AzuagaExpected goals in this matchFuente Cantos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.86

Azuaga

1.64

Fuente Cantos

0.86

Azuaga creates 91% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 61 away

1.61

creates per match

0.89

0.83

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Azuaga

1.61

Fuente Cantos

0.89

allows per match

Azuaga

0.83

Fuente Cantos

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Azuaga+0.00on par

Fuente Cantos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuaga ↓

Fuente Cantos →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Azuaga or draw

80%

Azuaga or Fuente Cantos

75%

Draw or Fuente Cantos

44%

Winning margin

Azuaga wins by 2+

30%

Fuente Cantos wins by 2+

Team goals

Azuaga 1+ goals

81%

Azuaga 2+ goals

49%

Azuaga 3+ goals

23%

Fuente Cantos 1+ goals

58%

Fuente Cantos 2+ goals

21%

Fuente Cantos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Azuaga (draw refunded)

74%

Fuente Cantos (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Azuaga at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Fuente Cantos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Azuaga attack 1.61 + Fuente Cantos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fuente Cantos attack 0.89 + Azuaga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Azuaga scores more

56%

level

25%

Fuente Cantos scores more

20%

Azuaga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff