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Fuenlabrada vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Extremadura
Extremadura
6/28/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 36Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Fuenlabrada40%
×Draw28%
Extremadura32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.23
Extremadura
1.06

Fuenlabrada creates 16% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.16
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
1.06
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
68%
Fuenlabrada or Extremadura
72%
Draw or Extremadura
60%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
17%
Extremadura wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
71%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
35%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
13%
Extremadura 1+ goals
65%
Extremadura 2+ goals
29%
Extremadura 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
56%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 63 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
40%
level
28%
Extremadura scores more
32%

Fuenlabrada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fuenlabrada 1–1 Extremadura

Fuenlabrada and Extremadura drew 1-1 in Segunda División on June 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.