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Extremadura vs Fuenlabrada — Segunda División 2018

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
8/25/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Extremadura38%
×Draw29%
Fuenlabrada33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.16
Fuenlabrada
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

creates per match

Extremadura
0.98
Fuenlabrada
0.92

allows per match

Extremadura
1.21
Fuenlabrada
1.33

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
67%
Extremadura or Fuenlabrada
71%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
62%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
16%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
69%
Extremadura 2+ goals
32%
Extremadura 3+ goals
11%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
65%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
29%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
54%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 0.98 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fuenlabrada attack 0.92 + Extremadura defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Extremadura scores more
38%
level
29%
Fuenlabrada scores more
33%

Extremadura at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extremadura vs Fuenlabrada

Fuenlabrada beat Extremadura 2-1 in Segunda División on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.