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Fuenlabrada vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
9/28/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fuenlabrada39%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuenlabrada
1.21
Atlético Madrid II
1.07

Fuenlabrada creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fuenlabrada
1.16
Atlético Madrid II
1.19

allows per match

Fuenlabrada
0.95
Atlético Madrid II
1.26

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw
68%
Fuenlabrada or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
61%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
17%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
70%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
34%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
12%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.19 + Fuenlabrada defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more
39%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
32%

Fuenlabrada at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuenlabrada vs Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Fuenlabrada 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.