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Atlético Madrid II vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
5/4/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlético Madrid II51%
×Draw25%
Fuenlabrada24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
1.59
Fuenlabrada
1.01

Atlético Madrid II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
1.60
Fuenlabrada
1.11

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.91
Fuenlabrada
1.58

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
76%
Atlético Madrid II or Fuenlabrada
75%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
49%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
27%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
21%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
64%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
27%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
68%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.60 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fuenlabrada attack 1.11 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
51%
level
25%
Fuenlabrada scores more
24%

Atlético Madrid II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Fuenlabrada

Atlético Madrid II beat Fuenlabrada 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.