FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Monchengladbach — Bundesliga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 28+ matches
FSV Mainz 0550%
Borussia Monchengladbach27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FSV Mainz 05 creates 44% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FSV Mainz 05 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FSV Mainz 05 at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 28 matches
Borussia Monchengladbach away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.68 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.80
Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.15 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
FSV Mainz 05 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC AugsburgFSV Mainz 05
Union BerlinBorussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Heidenheim
FC St. Pauli
SC Paderborn 07If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FSV Mainz 05 host Borussia Monchengladbach on Friday, 24 February 2023 at 19:30. The match is part of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Monchengladbach
FSV Mainz 05 beat Borussia Monchengladbach 4-0 in Bundesliga on February 24, 2023.
Goals: Lee Jae-Sung (25'), M. Ingvartsen (49'), L. Ajorque (72'), N. Weiper (90+3').
Borussia Monchengladbach controlled possession (64%) and registered 9 shots to 14.
The match was played at MEWA ARENA in Mainz.