Borussia Monchengladbach 0–1 FSV Mainz 05

Borussia Monchengladbach

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FSV Mainz 05

Aarón Martín 55'

9/4/2022

Bundesliga · Round 5Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Borussia Monchengladbach42%

×Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0534%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia MonchengladbachExpected goals in this matchFSV Mainz 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.44

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.64

FSV Mainz 05

1.44

Borussia Monchengladbach creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

1.53

creates per match

1.42

1.45

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.53

FSV Mainz 05

1.42

allows per match

Borussia Monchengladbach

1.45

FSV Mainz 05

1.75

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Borussia Monchengladbach-0.12scores less

FSV Mainz 05-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Monchengladbach ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Borussia Monchengladbach or draw

66%

Borussia Monchengladbach or FSV Mainz 05

76%

Draw or FSV Mainz 05

58%

Winning margin

Borussia Monchengladbach wins by 2+

22%

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Borussia Monchengladbach 1+ goals

81%

Borussia Monchengladbach 2+ goals

49%

Borussia Monchengladbach 3+ goals

23%

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

76%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

42%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Borussia Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

56%

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.45 · 32 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.75 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Monchengladbach attack 1.53 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.64

FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.42 + Borussia Monchengladbach defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Borussia Monchengladbach scores more

42%

level

24%

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

34%

Borussia Monchengladbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Borussia Monchengladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Bensebaïni

Borussia Monchengladbach · D

8.0

Match Events

26'

Kouadio Koné

39'

Leandro Barreiro

42'

Jae-Sung Lee

46'

M. Friedrich← N. Elvedi

52'

L. Stindl← A. Pléa

53'

Ko Itakura

55'

Aarón Martín

58'

A. Fulgini← L. Barreiro

58'

A. Stach← Lee Jae-Sung

76'

D. Burgzorg← J. Burkardt

81'

E. Fernandes← M. Leitsch

81'

M. Mustapha← K. Onisiwo

82'

N. Ngoumou← J. Scally

87'

J. Weigl← M. Koné

88'

Dominik Kohr

90+5'

Robin Zentner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BorussiaFSV

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots11

4Corners8

8Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots11

2On Target5

7Off Target3

5Blocked3

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

444Total Passes373

356Accurate Passes299

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides5