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FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC Astoria Walldorf — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FSV Mainz 05 II
FSV Mainz 05 II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Astoria Walldorf
FC Astoria Walldorf
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FSV Mainz 05 II37%
×Draw23%
FC Astoria Walldorf39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Mainz 05 II
1.60
FC Astoria Walldorf
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

FSV Mainz 05 II
2.00
FC Astoria Walldorf
1.60

allows per match

FSV Mainz 05 II
1.67
FC Astoria Walldorf
1.20

finishing

FSV Mainz 05 II+0.00on par
FC Astoria Walldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Mainz 05 II ↓

FC Astoria Walldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FSV Mainz 05 II or draw
61%
FSV Mainz 05 II or FC Astoria Walldorf
77%
Draw or FC Astoria Walldorf
63%

Winning margin

FSV Mainz 05 II wins by 2+
18%
FC Astoria Walldorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FSV Mainz 05 II 1+ goals
80%
FSV Mainz 05 II 2+ goals
47%
FSV Mainz 05 II 3+ goals
22%
FC Astoria Walldorf 1+ goals
81%
FC Astoria Walldorf 2+ goals
49%
FC Astoria Walldorf 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FSV Mainz 05 II (draw refunded)
49%
FC Astoria Walldorf (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Mainz 05 II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

FC Astoria Walldorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Mainz 05 II attack 2.00 + FC Astoria Walldorf defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Astoria Walldorf attack 1.60 + FSV Mainz 05 II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FSV Mainz 05 II scores more
37%
level
23%
FC Astoria Walldorf scores more
39%

FC Astoria Walldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Astoria Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FSV
FC
B. Hoffmann
Manager: B. Hoffmann
M. Born
Manager: M. Born

Friendlies Clubs: FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 FC Astoria Walldorf

FSV Mainz 05 II and FC Astoria Walldorf drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.