FSV Mainz 05 II vs FC Astoria Walldorf — League #86 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
FSV Mainz 05 II39%
FC Astoria Walldorf37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 9 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FSV Mainz 05 II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FSV Mainz 05 II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches
FC Astoria Walldorf away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FSV Mainz 05 II attack 1.22 + FC Astoria Walldorf defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48
FC Astoria Walldorf attack 1.30 + FSV Mainz 05 II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
FSV Mainz 05 II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "FSV Mainz 05 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
FC 08 Homburg
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
Eintracht Trier
Stuttgarter Kickers
FSV Frankfurt
Hessen Kassel
TSV Steinbach
SV Sandhausen
Freiburg IIFC Astoria Walldorf
Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.
SGV Freiberg
Balingen
Bayern Alzenau
Kickers Offenbach
Bahlinger SC
Schott MainzFSV Mainz 05 IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FSV Mainz 05 II host FC Astoria Walldorf on Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #86 2026/2027 season.
FSV Mainz 05 II 1 – 2 FC Astoria Walldorf
FC Astoria Walldorf beat FSV Mainz 05 II 2-1 in League #86 on March 8, 2025.
Goals: K. Burger (56' pen), M. Carl (78', 81' pen).
The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.