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FSV Frankfurt U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

FSV Frankfurt U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Köln U19
Fortuna Köln U19
2/8/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1952%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Köln U1926%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Frankfurt U19
2.01
Fortuna Köln U19
1.38

FSV Frankfurt U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19
1.52
Fortuna Köln U19
0.79

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19
1.97
Fortuna Köln U19
2.50

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw
74%
FSV Frankfurt U19 or Fortuna Köln U19
78%
Draw or Fortuna Köln U19
48%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+
30%
Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals
87%
FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals
59%
FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals
32%
Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.01

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more
52%
level
22%
Fortuna Köln U19 scores more
26%

FSV Frankfurt U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FSV Frankfurt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FSV
Fortuna
B. Yelken
Manager: B. Yelken
T. Westendorf
Manager: T. Westendorf

U19 Bundesliga: FSV Frankfurt U19 1–2 Fortuna Köln U19

Fortuna Köln U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 8, 2026.