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Fortuna Köln U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Fortuna Köln U19
Fortuna Köln U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FSV Frankfurt U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
4/11/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1933%
×Draw21%
FSV Frankfurt U1946%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Köln U19
1.73
FSV Frankfurt U19
2.08

FSV Frankfurt U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19
1.36
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.23

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19
2.93
FSV Frankfurt U19
2.10

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par
FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw
54%
Fortuna Köln U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19
79%
Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19
67%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+
16%
FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals
52%
Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals
25%
FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals
87%
FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals
61%
FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)
41%
FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.73

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more
33%
level
21%
FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more
46%

FSV Frankfurt U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FSV Frankfurt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fortuna
FSV
T. Westendorf
Manager: T. Westendorf
B. Yelken
Manager: B. Yelken

Match Recap: Fortuna Köln U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19

Fortuna Köln U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 11, 2026.