FSV Frankfurt U19 0–3 Eintracht Frankf U19

FSV Frankfurt U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Eintracht Frankf U19

G. Vadacca 74'

J. Geike 56'

B. Džanović 10'

8/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 3Rasenplatz Bornheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1931%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Frankf U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Frankfurt U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

2.13

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.67

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.13

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 74 away

1.52

creates per match

2.28

1.97

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.52

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.28

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.97

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw

52%

FSV Frankfurt U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

79%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

69%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

15%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

81%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

50%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

23%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

88%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

63%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.28 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

48%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Džanović

46'

N. Zaatan← A. Mourankaou

46'

N. Neuendorff← T. Kpebane

54'

J. Barry← A. Chaikhoun

54'

56'

65'

65'

65'

65'

G. Vadacca← B. Džanović

74'

L. Husterer← Derek Osei

74'

G. Vadacca

77'

A. Husovic← D. Major

77'

M. Meziani← Y. Ates

77'

Mun Chan-woo← L. Park

FSV

Eintracht

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Yelken

46'▲N. Zaatan←▼A. Mourankaou

65'▲L. Kraft←▼N. Zaatan

65'▲S. Brkic←▼D. Meene

77'▲A. Husovic←▼D. Major

77'▲M. Meziani←▼Y. Ates

77'▲Mun Chan-woo←▼L. Park

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

ZaatanKraftBrkicHusovicMezianiChan-wooWagner

Manager: H. Rasche

46'▲N. Neuendorff←▼T. Kpebane

54'▲J. Barry←▼A. Chaikhoun

54'▲J. Geike←▼A. Souza

65'▲A. Loune←▼M. Dills

65'▲G. Vadacca←▼B. Džanović

74'▲L. Husterer←▼Derek Osei

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

NeuendorffBarryGeikeLouneVadaccaHustererHeld