Eintracht Frankf U19 3–1 FSV Frankfurt U19

Eintracht Frankf U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FSV Frankfurt U19

Ş. Çetin 80', 24' (pen)

A. Çakar 44'

İ. Aral 36' (pen)

12/8/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 14Stadion am Riederwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Eintracht Frankf U1958%

×Draw20%

FSV Frankfurt U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Frankf U19Expected goals in this matchFSV Frankfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.32

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.22

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.32

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 31 away

2.34

creates per match

1.23

1.42

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.34

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.23

allows per match

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.42

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Frankf U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Eintracht Frankf U19 or draw

78%

Eintracht Frankf U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19

80%

Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19

42%

Winning margin

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

36%

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

65%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

38%

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

73%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

38%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

72%

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Frankf U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.34 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.22

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

22%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Ş. ÇetinPenalty

36'

İ. AralPenalty

44'

A. Çakar

46'

D. Dejanovic← F. Zorn

46'

F. Pandza← I. Delic

63'

D. Yokota← İ. Aral

77'

M. Mahmudov← Rodrigo Tiago

80'

Ş. Çetin

84'

Jabez Maleko← A. Çakar

86'

L. Weingärtner← P. Finger

86'

D. Amoah← L. Bazzoli

90+1'

Danilo Oliveira← Umar Saho

Eintracht

FSV

Harbrecht

▼

Delic

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

Çakar

▼

Zorn

▼

Saho

Manager: T. Stipić

46'▲D. Dejanovic←▼F. Zorn

84'▲Jabez Maleko←▼A. Çakar

86'▲L. Weingärtner←▼P. Finger

90+1'▲Danilo Oliveira←▼Umar Saho

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

DejanovicMalekoWeingärtnerOliveiraHäuserHinkeOrywol

Manager: H. Sünal

46'▲F. Pandza←▼I. Delic

63'▲D. Yokota←▼İ. Aral

77'▲M. Mahmudov←▼Rodrigo Tiago

86'▲D. Amoah←▼L. Bazzoli

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

PandzaYokotaMahmudovAmoahAltindagKraftPinho

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankf U19 3–1 FSV Frankfurt U19

Eintracht Frankf U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 8, 2018.

Goals: Ş. Çetin (24' pen, 80'), İ. Aral (36' pen), A. Çakar (44').

The match was played at Stadion am Riederwald in Frankfurt am Main.

Eintracht Frankf U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankf U19 3–1 FSV Frankfurt U19