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FSV Frankfurt U19 vs Borussia Dortmund U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

FSV Frankfurt U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
10/18/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 9Rasenplatz Bornheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1922%
×Draw20%
Borussia Dortmund U1958%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Frankfurt U19
1.35
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.28

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 66 away

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19
1.52
Borussia Dortmund U19
2.59

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19
1.97
Borussia Dortmund U19
1.18

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw
42%
FSV Frankfurt U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19
80%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19
78%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+
9%
Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals
74%
FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals
39%
FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals
15%
Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
90%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
66%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)
28%
Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.59 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more
22%
level
20%
Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
58%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

FSV
Borussia
B. Yelken
Manager: B. Yelken
Felix Hirschnagl
Manager: Felix Hirschnagl

U19 Bundesliga: FSV Frankfurt U19 1–3 Borussia Dortmund U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Bornheim in Frankfurt am Main.