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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FSV Frankfurt U19
FSV Frankfurt U19
I. Soytürk 71' (OG)
S. Inácio 56' (pen)
J. Feddersen 48'
T. Etcibasi 10'
8/9/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1969%
×Draw17%
FSV Frankfurt U1914%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.54
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.08

Borussia Dortmund U19 creates 135% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 31 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
2.97
FSV Frankfurt U19
1.23

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
0.93
FSV Frankfurt U19
2.10

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
86%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19
83%
Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19
31%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
47%
FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
92%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
72%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
46%
FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals
66%
FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals
29%
FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
83%
FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 2.97, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 2.97 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.54

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more
14%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
T. Etcibasi
48'
J. Feddersen
56'
S. InácioPenalty
71'
I. SoytürkOwn goal
Borussia
FSV
Felix Hirschnagl
Manager: Felix Hirschnagl
B. Yelken
Manager: B. Yelken

Borussia Dortmund U19 4 – 0 FSV Frankfurt U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 beat FSV Frankfurt U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 9, 2025.

Goals: T. Etcibasi (10'), J. Feddersen (48'), S. Inácio (56' pen), I. Soytürk (71' o.g.).

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.