FSV Frankfurt U19 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld U19

FSV Frankfurt U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Arminia Bielefeld U19

N. Zaatan 43'

T. Krüger 24' (OG)

L. Simunic 19' (pen)

4/6/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 9Nidda-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FSV Frankfurt U1940%

×Draw22%

Arminia Bielefeld U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV Frankfurt U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.71

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.79

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 62 away

1.52

creates per match

1.44

1.97

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.52

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.97

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Frankfurt U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FSV Frankfurt U19 or draw

63%

FSV Frankfurt U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

78%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

60%

Winning margin

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

21%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

83%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

53%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

26%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

82%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

51%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Frankfurt U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.97 · 31 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.52 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.79

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

37%

FSV Frankfurt U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FSV Frankfurt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

L. SimunicPenalty

24'

T. KrügerOwn goal

43'

N. Zaatan

46'

L. Dick← T. Wegener

46'

L. Unruh← T. Bärenwaldt

68'

C. Dramali← Y. Ates

68'

D. Demir← D. Meene

77'

B. Afghanyar← M. Lippert

77'

E. Arda← T. Krüger

78'

Mun Chan-Woo← M. Akhouji

78'

T. Grimmer← N. Zaatan

83'

G. Gutmann← T. Coşar

87'

T. Wanner← D. Major

FSV

Arminia

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Zaatan

Husovic

▼

Major

Manager: B. Yelken

68'▲C. Dramali←▼Y. Ates

68'▲D. Demir←▼D. Meene

78'▲Mun Chan-Woo←▼M. Akhouji

78'▲T. Grimmer←▼N. Zaatan

87'▲T. Wanner←▼D. Major

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

DramaliDemirChan-WooGrimmerWannerIwan

Manager: M. Drobe

46'▲L. Dick←▼T. Wegener

46'▲L. Unruh←▼T. Bärenwaldt

77'▲B. Afghanyar←▼M. Lippert

77'▲E. Arda←▼T. Krüger

83'▲G. Gutmann←▼T. Coşar

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

DickUnruhAfghanyarArdaGutmannKollmeier

U19 Bundesliga: FSV Frankfurt U19 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld U19

FSV Frankfurt U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 6, 2025.

Goals: L. Simunic (19' pen), T. Krüger (24' o.g.), N. Zaatan (43').

The match was played at Nidda-Sportfeld in Bad Vilbel.

FSV Frankfurt U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: FSV Frankfurt U19 3–0 Arminia Bielefeld U19