Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–1 FSV Frankfurt U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FSV Frankfurt U19

D. Richter 56'

S. Brkic 30'

2/8/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 2Sportplatz Masch Kunstrasen A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1947%

×Draw22%

FSV Frankfurt U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchFSV Frankfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.46

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.88

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.46

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 31 away

1.66

creates per match

1.23

1.69

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.66

FSV Frankfurt U19

1.23

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.69

FSV Frankfurt U19

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

FSV Frankfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

FSV Frankfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

70%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or FSV Frankfurt U19

78%

Draw or FSV Frankfurt U19

53%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

26%

FSV Frankfurt U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

85%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

56%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

29%

FSV Frankfurt U19 1+ goals

77%

FSV Frankfurt U19 2+ goals

43%

FSV Frankfurt U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

61%

FSV Frankfurt U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

FSV Frankfurt U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + FSV Frankfurt U19 defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.88

FSV Frankfurt U19 attack 1.23 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

FSV Frankfurt U19 scores more

30%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Brkic

46'

B. Afghanyar← M. Lippert

46'

D. Richter← T. Bärenwaldt

56'

D. Richter

60'

C. Dramali← L. Simunic

60'

S. Kusumovic← S. Brkic

72'

Mun Chan-Woo← J. Romdhane

72'

T. Grimmer← Y. Ates

76'

G. Gutmann← E. Arda

76'

M. Gouiffe à Goufan← T. Krüger

84'

D. Demir← M. Akhouji

Arminia

FSV

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Drobe

46'▲B. Afghanyar←▼M. Lippert

46'▲D. Richter←▼T. Bärenwaldt

76'▲G. Gutmann←▼E. Arda

76'▲M. Gouiffe à Goufan←▼T. Krüger

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

AfghanyarRichterGutmannGoufanZaloha

Manager: B. Yelken

60'▲C. Dramali←▼L. Simunic

60'▲S. Kusumovic←▼S. Brkic

72'▲Mun Chan-Woo←▼J. Romdhane

72'▲T. Grimmer←▼Y. Ates

84'▲D. Demir←▼M. Akhouji

FSV Frankfurt U19 substitutes

DramaliKusumovicChan-WooGrimmerDemirSeiler

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–1 FSV Frankfurt U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 and FSV Frankfurt U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Brkic (30'), D. Richter (56').

The match was played at Sportplatz Masch Kunstrasen A in Halle.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–1 FSV Frankfurt U19